Tuesday, October 05, 2010

A Post Worth More Than 4,000 Hits -- Highlighting the Remarkable Runs of Albert Pujols and Ichiro Suzuki

In conjunction with this article, please take the poll atop the right column (unless it's gone by the time you read this).

It's an imperfect poll as I have no idea how many non-baseball fans are apt to visit Seth Saith on any given day, and I would presume that even passing fans of the national past-time will be familiar with all six of the names listed.

But my thought is that although Albert Pujols and Ichiro Suzuki are every bit the hitters (if not well-beyond as some would argue) that Reggie Jackson and Pete Rose were in the 1970's, they do not have anywhere near the same renown among the general public. (And the Q ratings of Halladay and Lincecum are likely even less, despite being two of the best pitchers in baseball).

But rather than ruing Pujols' and Ichiro's relative lack of mainstream popularity, I just felt like celebrating their accomplishments, which over the past 10 years have been truly historic.

Albert Pujols
...is the first baseman for the St. Louis Cardinals. He entered the major leagues in 2001 and put together a better first decade than anyone in baseball history. These are his stats:
Year Age Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB
2001 21 STL 161 676 590 112 194 47 4 37 130 69 93 .329 .403 .610 1.013 157 360
2002 22 STL 157 675 590 118 185 40 2 34 127 72 69 .314 .394 .561 .955 151 331
2003 23 STL 157 685 591 137 212 51 1 43 124 79 65 .359 .439 .667 1.106 187 394
2004 24 STL 154 692 592 133 196 51 2 46 123 84 52 .331 .415 .657 1.072 172 389
2005 25 STL 161 700 591 129 195 38 2 41 117 97 65 .330 .430 .609 1.039 168 360
2006 26 STL 143 634 535 119 177 33 1 49 137 92 50 .331 .431 .671 1.102 178 359
2007 27 STL 158 679 565 99 185 38 1 32 103 99 58 .327 .429 .568 .997 157 321
2008 28 STL 148 641 524 100 187 44 0 37 116 104 54 .357 .462 .653 1.114 190 342
2009 29 STL 160 700 568 124 186 45 1 47 135 115 64 .327 .443 .658 1.101 189 374
2010 30 STL 159 700 587 115 183 39 1 42 118 103 76 .312 .414 .596 1.011 173 350
10 Seasons 1558 6782 5733 1186 1900 426 15 408 1230 914 646 .331 .426 .624 1.050 172 3580
162 Game Avg. 162 705 596 123 198 44 2 42 128 95 67 .331 .426 .624 1.050 172 372
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/5/2010.

I'm no statistician, sabremetrician or mathematician, but 10 full seasons makes it easy to see that Pujols has averaged 41 home runs and 123 RBI while hitting .331 over the decade. Combining the power numbers with the batting average, and more in depth statistics that hopefully one of my friends can explain, what Pujols has done ranks up there with Mays, Williams, Aaron and the greatest of the all-time greats.

Using a 162-game average, which makes comparing players of different eras a bit easier, here's how Pujols compares in average, home runs, RBI and OPS (On-Base + Slugging Percentage; more info here) for his career to date vs. the entire careers for the others listed.

                                 HR   RBI   Avg.   OPS
Albert Pujols              42    128   .331   1.050  (still active)
Babe Ruth                  46    143   .342   1.164
Ted Williams              37    130   .344   1.116
Lou Gehrig                 37    149   .340   1.080
Barry Bonds               41    108   .298   1.051
Alex Rodriguez           43    129   .303   .958   (still active)
Hank Aaron               37    113    .305  .944
Willie Mays                36    103   .301   .941
Reggie Jackson          32     98    .262   .846

Clearly, the numbers state it with more clarity than I can, but what Pujols is doing has only been topped by a select few (only Ruth bests him in all 4 categories). And unlike his closest contemporary, A-Rod, or recent stars like Bonds and Sammy Sosa, Pujols has never been tainted with having failed a test for performance enhancing drugs or even strong anecdotal evidence, especially as more stringent testing is now in place and he's not exactly dropping off much.

Ichiro Suzuki
...is the right fielder for the Seattle Mariners. Like Pujols, he began playing in the major leagues in 2001. But he previously played 9 seasons in his native Japan, where he had 1,278 hits and a .353 career batting average (seasons in Japan are shorter than the 162 in the U.S.; previously 130, now 142. Ex-Cub Matt Murton just broke Ichiro's single-season hits record in Japan, but it took him more games).

Although Ichiro can't compare to Pujols due to the lack of comparable power stats, beyond the hitting stats I'll show below, he has also been one of the best fielders and base runners in baseball.

With his 10th 200-hit season, Ichiro just broke his own major league record for most consecutive seasons of 200 hits or more, and tied Pete Rose for most such campaigns in a major league career (and Rose played 24 seasons).

Look at Ichiro's stats below and think about this: Ichiro has 2,244 hits in just 10 seasons. If he were to have the same number of plate appearances as Rose (15,864;  impossible due to his late-start in the U.S.) and maintain the same consistency as he's had over 10 years, Ichiro would attain 4,850 hits. Rose holds the major league record with 4,256. 

Year Age Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB
2001 27 SEA 157 738 692 127 242 34 8 8 69 56 14 30 53 .350 .381 .457 .838 126 316
2002 28 SEA 157 728 647 111 208 27 8 8 51 31 15 68 62 .321 .388 .425 .813 120 275
2003 29 SEA 159 725 679 111 212 29 8 13 62 34 8 36 69 .312 .352 .436 .788 112 296
2004 30 SEA 161 762 704 101 262 24 5 8 60 36 11 49 63 .372 .414 .455 .869 130 320
2005 31 SEA 162 739 679 111 206 21 12 15 68 33 8 48 66 .303 .350 .436 .786 113 296
2006 32 SEA 161 752 695 110 224 20 9 9 49 45 2 49 71 .322 .370 .416 .786 106 289
2007 33 SEA 161 736 678 111 238 22 7 6 68 37 8 49 77 .351 .396 .431 .827 122 292
2008 34 SEA 162 749 686 103 213 20 7 6 42 43 4 51 65 .310 .361 .386 .747 102 265
2009 35 SEA 146 678 639 88 225 31 4 11 46 26 9 32 71 .352 .386 .465 .851 129 297
2010 36 SEA 162 732 680 74 214 30 3 6 43 42 9 45 86 .315 .359 .394 .754 113 268
10 Seasons 1588 7339 6779 1047 2244 258 71 90 558 383 88 457 683 .331 .376 .430 .806 117 2914
162 Game Avg. 162 749 692 107 229 26 7 9 57 39 9 47 70 .331 .376 .430 .806 117 297
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/5/2010.

One thing that's fascinating to note is that Pujols and Suzuki, both having played 10 full seasons in the majors (averaging 156 and 159 games per season, respectively), each have a lifetime batting average of .331, which tops all other active players.

Pujols is actually percentage points ahead, .3314 to .3310, despite having 344 fewer hits over the decade. Largely by virtue of being a lead-off hitter, Ichiro has 557 more plate appearances than Pujols, who typically bats third in the Cardinals' lineup. But this turns into 1,046 more at bats for Ichiro, due to Pujols drawing exactly twice as many walks, 914 vs. 457.

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