Sunday, February 24, 2013

What Will and Should Win: Last Minute Oscar Predictions

Unlike 2012 and 2011, this year I haven't found the time nor need to write a full-fledged Oscar post.

But with the telecast still 90 minutes away, there's no time like the present.

Having seen all of the Best Picture nominees and most of those in the acting categories, I thought I'd take a stab at predicting what will win, while indicating a few cases where I think what "will win" differs from what "should win."

Speaking of "should win," some may enjoy this list of historical Alternative Best Picture Winners my friend Brad Strauss, an organizer of the Chicago Film Discussion Meetup Group, compiled for my blog last year, before The Artist took the prize.

I also think this Hollywood Reporter piece on a Academy member's voting process is rather insightful and fascinating.

But rather than bother with a post-haste text-heavy post, I marked up an Oscar Ballot I found on, which I include below.

If so inclined, I may revisit my picks tomorrow to see how I did, but I certainly would not suggest anyone take my predictions to their local bookie.

In full disclosure, I should note that in some categories (beyond the major ones) where I didn't have any basis for a good guess, I took a look at what "experts" had predicted--as compiled on a bit of guidance.

And now, the envelope please....

Post-Oscar Update:

I wound up getting 16 of 24 categories right, although I obviously did not predict the tie in Sound Editing. But I missed on many of the major awards, including Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Animated Feature, Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay. I did pick Argo to win Best Picture; it was the clear favorite but I felt it deserved its award.

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