Showing posts with label Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Football. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 03, 2014

NFL Preview 2014: What Seth Saith Will Happen...I Guess

I have always been a football fan--much more of the NFL than college--though the extent of my fandom has largely consisted of watching and following the Chicago Bears. And the Super Bowl. Which have mostly been mutually exclusive.

Sometimes I throw away money in weekly football pools, but I have never played Fantasy Football, rarely watch regular season games in which I have no rooting interest and would be hard-pressed to name many players beyond the big stars and members of the Bears.

So I can hardly think of anyone less-equipped to make NFL predictions with any degree of expertise and acuity.

But last season, rather than bother with a Football Picks Post on Seth Saith, I simply threw up a couple guesses on Facebook.

And glory be, I was exactly right. The Seattle Seahawks won the Super Bowl and the Bears finished 8-8.

So now I feel obliged to offer up a slightly more comprehensive football forecast prior to the 2014 NFL Season kicking off Thursday night in Seattle with the Seahawks taking on the Packers.

Mind you, my predictions will not be accompanied by any expert analysis, as I don't pretend to possess any, and unlike my other "football" (i.e. soccer) forecasts, I couldn't loop in any friends that do.

So if you need intelligence with your NFL predictions, refer to ESPN, Sports Illustrated, Yahoo Sports,
your local newspaper or myriad other outlets.

But, as surprise teams seem to spring up every year, chances are many "expert" picks will wind up being just as wrong as mine.

So without further ado, here are my, um, guesses for the divisional standings, conference champions, Super Bowl Winner and league MVP:

NFC North
Packers 
Bears 
Lions 
Vikings

NFC East
Giants 
Eagles 
Cowboys 
Redskins

NFC West
49ers
Seahawks 
Cardinals
Rams

NFC South
Saints
Bucs
Falcons
Panthers

NFC Wild Cards
Seahawks
Bears -> record: 9-7

NFC Champion
Saints

AFC North
Ravens 
Steelers 
Bengals 
Browns

AFC East
Patriots 
Dolphins
Jets 
Bills

AFC West
Broncos
Chiefs
Chargers
Raiders 

AFC South
Colts
Jaguars
Titans
Texans

AFC Wild Cards
Chiefs
Dolphins

AFC Champion
Colts

Super Bowl Champion
Saints over Colts

NFL MVP 
Andrew Luck

Thursday, March 21, 2013

Brian's Swan Song Strikes a Discordant Note, as Urlacher and the Bears Go Their Own Way

I really don't know if Brian Urlacher is physically capable of ever again playing middle linebacker at a level that would make him a defensive asset rather than a liability.

Following a season that was plagued--and prematurely ended--by injuries, it's entirely possible that neither Urlacher himself nor the Chicago Bears really know the answer to that question.

While I won't apologize for having a sentimental side when it comes to sports, I realize--as per the Cubs' ill-fated decision to bring Kerry Wood back last season--that emotion cannot much matter when it comes to personnel decisions in professional sports, which is, of course, a business.

So whether the Bears believe that, at age 35, Urlacher's skills have eroded too egregiously, that he would be an unnecessary distraction during Coach Marc Trestman's first season or that it's just smarter to develop a young linebacker in a year unlikely to end with the hoisting of the Lombardi trophy, I can't--from a football logic perspective--too convincingly fault the Bears for parting company with the future Hall of Famer.

But as a fan, I don't like it.

First of all, while I have avidly watched the Bears my entire conscious life, I don't pretend to have the wherewithal to intelligently assess Urlacher's play in 2012 and how severely it may have diminished from his dominance in prior seasons. But it seems to me that the Bears' defense last year was pretty damn good, and with Urlacher in the central role--if no longer the best player; that would be Julius Peppers--it stands to reason that he couldn't have been all that bad.

Now I realize that leadership, locker room popularity, reputation, defensive play calling and whatever else ardent supporters ascribe to Urlacher only go so far. None of the above really matters if a linebacker's ability to run and tackle are severely compromised.

But with Urlacher's backup, Nick Roach, having signed with the Raiders, the jury still out on whether 2012 #1 pick Shea McClellin can play middle linebacker and my preference that the Bears not bother with Manti Te'o, unless GM Phil Emery can find a stud linebacker in the draft--where offensive line help would seem a greater priority--I don't readily see the great detriment in bringing Brian Urlacher back for one last season.

Photo Credit: Chris Sweda/Tribune Photo
So for the Bears to offer him a 1-year, $2 million contract--with only half guaranteed--after he made $7.5 million last season, does seem, as Urlacher has stated, like a "slap in the face."

It appears evident, as Dan Bernstein of the Boers & Bernstein show on The Score 670 suggested in a Tweet, that the "Bears lowball to did its job. They save face while getting the fresh start they wanted all along (despite public comments)."

Bernstein may well be right, but I'm not sure of the necessity nor propriety of the "job."

Urlacher himself seems to have seen right through it, telling the Tribune's Vaughn McClure, "I just wish they would have said, 'We don't want you back.' I think this whole thing is just about them saving face and trying to say that they made a run at me."

If the Bears no longer wanted Urlacher, as their ridiculously low offer appears to attest, why not just come out and say "We thank Brian for his phenomenal service to date. It is with tremendous respect that we are opting to move forward in a different direction."

Over. Done. Honest. Gracious. And devoid of what the Tribune's Steve Rosenbloom called "the sloppy, squirrely, deceitful manner the Bears went about it."

Personally, I would have preferred to have seen Urlacher stay in a Bears uniform. But if it was time for him to go--as the great George Harrison once sang, "All things must pass"--it shouldn't have gone down like this.

And as a Bears fan--though not a season ticket holder, tailgater nor sports radio caller--I want to publicly state that I relished watching Brian Urlacher, and loved what he did for the Bears and for the city of Chicago since arriving from New Mexico in 2000.

Though I respect their enhanced perspectives, I have been puzzled by intimations from Rosenbloom, Bernstein, Barry Rozner of the Daily Herald (who filled in for Terry Boers the other day) and another Herald sportswriter, Mike Imrem, that Urlacher was largely unbeloved by fans, especially in relation to his stature as a player and the 'face of the franchise.'

I don't know; I only went to a few games at Soldier Field during Urlacher's tenure as a Bear, but it seemed to me that any fans decked out in team colors were overwhelmingly wearing an Urlacher 54 jersey.

If he wasn't beloved, the fans sure had a funny way of showing it.

On Facebook yesterday, a friend of mine--a former Bostonian and hardcore Patriots fan--posted that just last season he bought a Bears jersey. And like me, several years earlier, his choice was Urlacher.

Seems to me, that if the Bears really wanted Urlacher back, the shared revenues on Urlacher jersey sales for another year would have justified bumping $2 million to $3 million, which Brian said he likely would have taken.

I get that Urlacher could be surly and uncooperative with the media; this may explain some of the columns and comments I alluded to above. And I realize that he criticized the fans for booing the Bears and belittled the importance of their opinion after the Bears fired Lovie Smith.

I'm not condoning this; I just don't really care.

Who knows if I would want Brian Urlacher to be my best man? I doubt it will ever come up. But for the better part of 13 years, he was the best thing about the Chicago Bears.

Whatever his flaws, whatever his ongoing on-the-field capabilities, I appreciated him, I thank him and I think he deserved better.

Thursday, September 08, 2011

Are You Ready for Some Football? -- The 11 Greatest Players I've Ever Seen, now on Booth Reviews

Click here or on the image to see my latest post on Booth Reviews.


Thursday, September 09, 2010

The Patriots Will Win the Super Bowl, The Bears Will Win 4 Games and Other NFL Predictions That Won't Quite Add Up

With tonight being the kickoff of the NFL season, as the Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints host the Minnesota Vikings in what should be a wonderful rematch of last year's NFL Championship game (won by the Saints 31-28 in overtime), I thought I would make some predictions.

Certainly, there are about 50 million people far more qualified to do so. While I consider myself a lifelong football fan, I didn't watch a minute of any preseason game, rarely watch any regular season NFL games in which I don't have a rooting interest (i.e. I mainly watch my hometown Bears), have almost no interest in college football, have never played Fantasy Football and would be hard-pressed to name 20 current professional players who aren't on the Bears.

Furthermore establishing why you shouldn't take my predictions to Vegas (or your local bookie), last year I said the Bears would make it the Super Bowl--buying into the Jay Cutler hype--and would lose there to the New England Patriots. Cutler sucked, the Bears went 7-9 and the Patriots got crushed in the first-round of the playoffs.

Plus, my 2010 baseball predictions aren't looking all that hot, with only 3 or 4 of the 8 teams I picked to make the playoffs likely to do so.

So take these with a grain of salt and don't be too shocked next February 6 when very few of more forecasts have proven accurate.

(AP Photo/David J. Phillip, from NFL.com)
All this said, I did try to take my predictions seriously. I read through team previews and experts' predictions, and rather than simply say "I think this team will go 11-5," I went through this composite schedule and picked wins and losses for each game.

Unfortunately, though I to tried to ensure that all "win" picks were offset by a "loss" pick for the opposing team, somehow the win column below only adds up to 247. There are 512 games played in the NFL season and excluding very rare ties, half--i.e. 256--are won and half are lost.

Therefore I am 9 wins short of my predictions being mathematically possible, if nothing else. And lest you think I could've just added wins to the records of certain teams, I couldn't really do that without deducting wins from other teams, in utilizing my game-by-game prediction system.

I'm not sure what happened and haven't been able to figure it out. I found at least one mistake in the schedule I used--in Week 6, Arizona is listed as having a Bye Week, but Philadelphia is said to be playing Arizona; the Eagles are really playing Atlanta that week--so perhaps there were others. And certainly I could have made computational errors.

I've put in enough time on this already, so it'll have to stand as it, even if impossible. I doubt anyone would have known if I didn't say anything and the following is an accurate depiction of how I think all teams will finish in the standings and then the postseason.

But all bets are off.


NFC EAST

NY Giants          11 wins  5 losses
Dallas                 10-6 (wild card)
Philadelphia         8-8
Washington         4-12

NFC NORTH

Green Bay         13-3
Minnesota         10-6 (wild card)
Chicago            4-12
Detroit              4-12
Sorry fellow Bears fans; I thought they should win 6-7 games, but after a decent start don's see any wins from Week 10 on. I originally had Green Bay winning 14 through game-by-game picks, but that seemed too high.

NFC WEST

San Francisco      7-9 (division winner)
Seattle                 7-9
Arizona               5-10
St. Louis             4-12

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans      13-3
Carolina              9-7
Atlanta                7-9
Tampa Bay         3-13
This seems strange to me, to not have any teams at even .500 and a playoff team from last year winning only 5 games, but this is how my picks fell out.

NFC Playoffs
(3) New York Giants over (6) Minnesota
(5) Dallas over (4) San Francisco
--
(1) New Orleans over Dallas
New York Giants over (2) Green Bay
--
New Orleans over New York Giants


AFC EAST

New England         13-3
NY Jets                 11-5 (wild card)
Miami                     8-8
Buffalo                   2-14

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh             11-5
Baltimore              10-6
Cincinnati               7-9
Cleveland               3-13

AFC WEST     

San Diego             12-4
Denver                  11-5 (wild card)
Oakland                7-9
Kansas City          2-14

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis          13-3
Tennessee            7-9
Jacksonville          7-9
Houston               4-12


AFC Playoffs

(4) Pittsburgh over (5) Denver
(6) NY Jets over (3) San Diego
--
(1) New England over NY Jets
(2) Indianapolis over Pittsburgh
--
New England over Indianapolis


Super Bowl XLV
February 6, 2011
Arlington, Texas

New England over New Orleans

There you have it, the Patriots will win the Super Bowl. If Tom Brady stays healthy. And this morning he was in a car accident but seemingly was unhurt and participated in practice.

So that shows how precarious my--or anyone's--predictions can be. On paper, er, on screen, my playoff teams seem pretty solid, but there's always one or two teams that come out of nowhere to have a great season. Of the teams I didn't pick to make the playoffs, Cincinnati would be my best guess to be a sleeper.

And on that note, are you ready for some football?