Feel Free to Consider These Oscar Predictions Blah Blah Bland -- The 89th Academy Awards, Feb. 26, 2017

I love musicals, both live on stage and on celluloid (or DVD, Blu Ray or streaming digital code).

As I write this, three feet away is a rack containing over 75 prime film musicals, including classics like Singin' in the Rain, West Side Story, My Fair Lady, On the Town, The Sound of Music, Oklahoma, Oliver and The Fiddler on the Roof, lesser-known oldies like The Pirate, The Band Wagon, Funny Face and Cover Girl, atypical musicals such as A Hard Day's Night, Moulin Rouge and 8 Mile, and anything recent & worthwhile, such as Sweeney Todd, Les Miserables and Into the Woods.

I also own, digitally, Jacques Demy's wondrous The Umbrellas of Cherbourg and have seen and enjoyed, though a bit less, its successor The Young Girls of Rochefort.

And from the time I first heard about it, and saw its trailer, there was no 2016 movie I anticipated more than La La Land, which was clearly influenced by many of the above. 

In Chicago, it was released on the same weekend as Rogue One, the latest Star Wars film. I wound up seeing both the same day, but La La Land first and more eagerly.

Having heard good things from critics I respect and friends with whom I often concur, I wanted and expected to love the film, and thought the opening sequence--as hokey as a massive traffic jam singalong may sound to some--was brilliant.

Emma Stone is absolutely beguiling and her chemistry with the likewise superb Ryan Gosling is terrific.

I admire the chutzpah it took for Damien Chazelle to get such a labor of love made--still just 32, the clearly gifted writer/director had to find success with Whiplash (which I also didn't love as much as some) before getting backing for La La Land, which he had written earlier.

And I like what I had previously heard from Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, who had written music & lyrics for A Christmas Story: The Musical and current Broadway smash Dear Evan Hansen, though here just the lyrics.

Justin Hurwitz, a Harvard classmate of Chazelle's composed the music for La La Land, and before I went to see the film, I made a point of listening to the soundtrack on Spotify a few times. There are some nice tunes on it.

And you know what? I really liked La La Land and look forward to seeing it again, probably even buying the Blu-ray when it's released. 

But I don't think it's anywhere near the best movie of 2016 or on par with some of the truly great movie musicals of the past.

And though it's the favorite and likely will win Best Picture at the Oscars tonight, I don't think it should.

Except for Mel Gibson's Hacksaw Ridge, I've seen all the other Best Picture nominees, and many films up for awards in other major categories.

Though I don't really care who wins the Oscars, it's fun as sport for film buffs, and thus I'll once again devote a blog post to suggesting who I think will and should win, and who else I would've nominated. 

Those who may care what I think will probably have seen my Best Movies of 2016 post at year end, and I'll note that since I wrote it, I've seen Best Picture nominee Hidden Figures, Best Foreign Language Film Nominee The Salesman and Best Documentary nominee I Am Not Your Negro. All were excellent.

I did not see every movie in every category--particularly the Shorts--so in some cases I'll refrain from any forecasting or note my limited purview. To see all the nominees, you can click the nearby ballot image to enlarge it, or download it from TheGoldKnight.com. 

Best Picture
Will win: La La Land
Should win: Manchester by the Sea
Deserved a nomination: Loving, Sing Street
Didn't see among nominees: Hacksaw Ridge

Best Director
Will win: Damien Chazelle - La La Land
Should win: Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea

Best Actor
Will and should win: Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
Deserved a nomination: Joel Edgerton - Loving
Didn't see: Andrew Garfield, Viggo Mortensen

Best Actress
Will and should win: Emma Stone - La La Land
Deserved a nomination: Amy Adams - Arrival or Nocturnal Animals
Didn't see: Meryl Street, Isabelle Huppert, Annette Bening (not nominated for 20th Century Women)

Best Supporting Actor
Will and should win: Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
Deserved a nomination: Ben Foster - Hell or High Water, Jack Reynor - Sing Street

Best Supporting Actress
Will and should win: Viola Davis - Fences
Deserved a nomination: Sarah Gadon - Indignation

Best Original Screenplay
Will and should win: Manchester by the Sea

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will and should win: Moonlight
Deserved a nomination: Indignation

Best Documentary Feature
Will win: O.J.: Made in America
Should win of those I saw: I Am Not Your Negro
Didn't see: O.J.: Made in America, Life, Animated, Fire at Sea

Best Foreign Language Film
Will and should win: The Salesman
Didn't see any other nominees

Best Animated Feature
Will win: Zootopia
Should win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Didn't see: My Life as a Zucchini, The Red Turtle

Best Cinematography
Will win: La La Land
Should win (of those I saw): Arrival
Didn't see: Silence
Deserved a nomination: Nocturnal Animals, Hell or High Water

Best Costume Design
Will and should win: Jackie
Didn't see: Fantastic Beasts..., Allied, Florence Foster Jenkins
Deserved a nomination: Sing Street

Best Film Editing
Will win: La La Land
Should win: Moonlight 
Didn't see: Hacksaw Ridge
Deserved a nomination: Manchester by the Sea, Jackie
 
Best Original Score
Will and should win: La La Land
Deserved a nomination: Sing Street
Didn't see: Passengers

Best Original Song
Will and should win: "How Far I'll Go" from Moana
Will be excited to see Lin-Manuel Miranda win; would give him a career EGOT (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony) at the age of 37.
Deserved a nomination: "Brown Shoes" from Sing Street

Best Production Design
Will and should win: La La Land
Deserved a nomination: Rogue One

Didn't see: Fantastic Beasts..., Passengers

Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Will win: Star Trek Beyond
Didn't see any of the nominees

Best Visual Effects
Will win: Rogue One
Should win (of those I saw): Kubo and the Two Strings
Didn't see the other 3 nominees

Best Sound Editing
Will and should win: La La Land
Didn't see: Deepwater Horizon, Hacksaw Ridge, Sully
 
Best Sound Mixing
Will and should win: La La Land
Didn't see: Hacksaw Ridge, 13 Hours... 

...and the Oscar Goes To: Academy Award Predictions, Predilections and Omissions

As a vast preponderance of white people prepare to walk the red carpet at the 88th Academy Awards in just a few hours, I am rolling out my unneeded and undoubtedly incorrect Oscar picks.

I do find it rather dubious that not a single person of color has been nominated in any of the acting categories for two years running, and am empathetic to anyone boycotting the ceremony or broadcast due to the racial inequality.

But I plan on watching as I always do, and look forward to seeing how pointed host Chris Rock gets in his remarks.

And though I don't really look to the Oscars as the most astute arbiter of cinematic excellence, several good movies and performances were nominated--and very few seem to be shoo-ins.

So there is some fun in predicting, er, guessing who might win, and then seeing what will happen. 

I've seen most of the films nominated in major categories, but not in some others, so don't exactly take this to Las Vegas (as if you have time to do so).

Find printable ballot PDF here

And with the caveat that I've seen some stellar movies--including a few of the nominees--since I posted it, my year-end list of the Best New Movies I Saw in 2015 is probably a fuller gauge of the films I liked last year.

Anyway, here goes.

Best Picture
Will win: The Revenant
Should win: Room
Deserved a nomination: Carol, Love & Mercy, The End of the Tour, 99 Homes

Best Director
Will win: Alejandro G. Inarritu - The Revenant
Should win: Adam McKay - The Big Short
Deserved a nomination: Bill Pohlad - Love & Mercy, Todd Haynes - Carol, Ryan Coogler - Creed

Best Actor
Will win: Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant
Should win: Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant
Deserved a nomination: Will Smith - Concussion, Jason Segal - The End of the Tour, Michael B. Jordan - Creed

Best Actress
Will and should win: Brie Larson - Room 
Deserved a nomination: Lily Tomlin - Grandma; Daisy Ridley - Star Wars: The Force Awakens; Charlize Theron - Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Sylvester Stallone - Creed
Should win: Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies
Deserved a nomination: Benecio Del Toro - Sicario, Michael Shannon - 99 Homes, Joel Edgerton - The Gift, Chiwetel Ejiofor - The Martian

Best Supporting Actress
Will and should win: Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl
Deserved a nomination: Elizabeth Banks - Love & Mercy, Rebecca Hall - The Gift

Best Original Screenplay
Will and should win: Spotlight 
Deserved a nomination: 99 Homes

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will and should win: The Big Short
Deserved a nomination: Love & Mercy, The End of the Tour

Best Documentary Feature
Will win: Amy (Only nominee I saw)

Best Foreign Language Film
Will win: Son of Saul (Only nominee I saw)
Deserved a nomination: Phoenix, Wild Tales

Best Animated Feature
Will win: Inside Out (Only nominee I saw)

Best Cinematography
Will and should win: The Revenant
Deserved a nomination: Ex Machina
 
Best Costume Design
Will win: The Revenant
Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Film Editing
Will win: The Revenant
Should win: The Big Short
Deserved a nomination: Love & Mercy
 
Best Original Score
Will and should win: The Hateful Eight

Best Original Song
Will win: "Writing's on the Wall" from Spectre
Deserved a nomination: "One Kind of Love" from Love & Mercy

Best Production Design
Will win: The Revenant
Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Deserved a nomination: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Will and should win: The Revenant
Deserved a nomination: The Danish Girl

Best Visual Effects
Will and should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Sound Editing
Will and should win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Deserved a nomination: Love & Mercy
 
Best Sound Mixing
Will and should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Completely Unnecessary Oscar Predictions 2015 (with Some Interesting Picks of Deserving Non-Nominees)

It's not just that you can find Academy Award predictions from far more expect prognosticators on roughly four million other websites (that's just a guesstimate).

Nor that, as in many years, there are overwhelming favorites in many of the categories, which serves to make the Oscars more of a fashion show than an awards presentation holding very much suspense.

But furthering rendering this post unnecessary is that less than 2 months ago I posted my picks for the Best Movies of 2014, which I find more personally relevant than whatever criteria the members of the Academy may use for casting their ballots.

Of course, my list included films officially considered 2013 releases that didn't play in Chicago, and left out some worthy pictures that didn't open here until after the New Year (or which I just didn't see in 2014). 

These include now-seen Best Picture nominees Selma and American Sniper, as well as A Most Violent Year, Pride and Love is Strange. 

I have only seen one of the Documentary Features, and just one of the Foreign Language Films--and nothing in the Animated or Short categories--but otherwise have seen most of the movies included in most of the major Oscar categories.

Exceptions being just Inherent Vice, The Judge, Two Days, One Night, Still Alice, The Judge and Maleficent. (I intend to see Still Alice and Two Days, One Night either today or tomorrow.)

While I'm happy to have anyone read this, and doubt anyone was planning to place bets based on my picks, if you haven't caught on, my primarily reason for writing this is simply because I enjoy doing so.

So take a look at the ballot, and underneath, take a look at my thoughts. For what they're worth.

(It's possible that some of the movies I cite as deserving nominations are ineligible due to officially being 2013 releases; also, I don't have a source for delineating Original and Adapted Screenplays among not-nominated films, so had to do my best per Wikipedia.)

Best Picture
Will and should win: Boyhood
Deserved a nomination: A Most Violent Year, Nightcrawler, The Immigrant, Love is Strange, Ida (the latter is nominated for Best Foreign Language Film)
Didn't deserve to be nominated: Whiplash, The Grand Budapest Hotel and possibly American Sniper, which was hard to judge as just a movie given all the fuss about it.

Graphic by/from Nerdist.com; full-size here

Best Director
Will and should win: Richard Linklater - Boyhood
Deserved a nomination: Ava DuVernay - Selma, Pawel Pawlikowski - Ida

Best Actor
Will win: Michael Keaton - Birdman
Should win: Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything
Deserved a nomination and to win: David Oyelowo - Selma
Deserved a nomination: Jake Gyllenhaal - Nightcrawler or Enemy, Philip Seymour Hoffman - A Most Wanted Man, Nicolas Cage - Joe, Timothy Spall - Mr. Turner, Chadwick Boseman - Get on Up 

(Note: I'm not advocating these five actors, or suggested nominees in any category except Best Picture, in lieu of any of the actual nominees, but rather just noting that their work merited recognition.)

Best Actress
Will win: Julianne Moore - Still Alice
Should win: Though I hope to today or tomorrow, I haven't seen either Moore's or Marion Cotillard's nominated roles, but have heard good things about both. The latter was also excellent in The Immigrant.
(Update at 6:00pm CST: I saw both movies today; both were excellent, largely due to the performances of Moore and Cotillard, both outstanding. I'd be fine with either winning, but think I'd vote for Moore.)
Deserved a nomination: Jessica Chastain - A Most Violent Year, Tilda Swinton - Only Lovers Left Alive, Essie Davis - The Babadook

Ben Mendelsohn (R) with Jack O'Connell in Starred Up

Best Supporting Actor
Will and should win: J.K. Simmons - Whiplash, even though I didn't love the movie.
Deserved a nomination: Albert Brooks - A Most Wanted Year, John Hurt - Only Lovers Left Alive, Ben Mendelsohn - Starred Up

Best Supporting Actress
Will and should win: Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
Deserved a nomination: Agata Kulesza - Ida (she played the aunt), Carrie Coon - Gone Girl

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Birdman
Should win: Nightcrawler 
Deserved a nomination: A Most Violent Year, The Immigrant, Ida

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will and should win: The Imitation Game
Deserved a nomination: Gone Girl (if only because I liked the movie more than the book), Enemy

Best Documentary Feature
Will win: CITIZENFOUR
Should win: Finding Vivian Maier, with the caveat that I haven't seen the other nominees
Deserved a nomination and to win: Life Itself

Best Foreign Language Film
Will and should win: Ida. It is the only nominee I've seen but was my favorite film of 2014, overall. 
Deserved a nomination: Force Majeure, which I didn't see but was on my friend Dave's Top 10 of 2014. Probably also Two Days, One Night, though I haven't seen it yet, but have loved much else from its directors, the Dardenne Brothers.

Best Animated Feature
Will win: How to Train Your Dragon 2, though I haven't seen it or any other nominees.
Deserved a nomination and to win: The Lego Movie  

Ida, cinematography by Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski

Best Cinematography
Will win: Birdman
Should win: Ida
Deserved a nomination: Interstellar

Best Costume Design
Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should win: Mr. Turner 
Deserved a nomination: Belle

Best Film Editing
Will and should win: Boyhood
Deserved a nomination: Interstellar, Ida
 
Best Original Score
Will and should win: The Theory of Everything
Deserved a nomination: The Immigrant

The Grand Budapest Hotel- Production design by Adam Stackhausen,
Set Design by Anna Pinock, Hair & Makeup by Frances Hannon & Mark Coulier

Best Original Song
Will and should win: "Glory" from Selma
Deserved a nomination: "America for Me" from A Most Violent Year

Best Production Design
Will and should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Deserved a nomination: Guardians of the Galaxy, Only Lovers Left Alive

Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Will and should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Deserved a nomination: Only Lovers Left Alive, Into the Woods

Interstellar - Visual Effects nominees: Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley,
Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher

Best Visual Effects
Will and should win: Interstellar
Deserved a nomination: Edge of Tomorrow

Best Sound Editing
Will and should win: American Sniper
Deserved a nomination: Boyhood
 
Best Sound Mixing
Will and should win: American Sniper